Well, I admit it… For the first time in the four seasons that I have been doing this, a scenario came up that produced results that I believe to be faulty, albeit with only one team. Recall from here that my system awards points for wins, strength-of-schedule, and margin of victory. So, every week, teams earn points whether they win or lose — their position in the overall rankings is just dependent how many points they earn RELATIVE to other teams.
Why does this matter? Because this is the first time that I have had a 12-0 mid-major ranked #2 just before playing a conference championship game. I began to worry about this scenario a few weeks ago, hoping that somebody would overtake Houston so that I could avoid the egg-on-my-face situation. It didn’t happen and, as a result, Houston earned enough points to stay #2 relative to everybody else despite losing convincingly (granted, to a good team) yesterday.
That was part of a conscious design decision years ago to evaluate the season as an accumulation of games rather than an AVERAGE per game. I made that decision because I didn’t want the loser of a conference championship game to be punished relative to a team from the same conference that didn’t even get into the game. And that works most of the time. Consider that Georgia lost yesterday (badly) to LSU. They still earned the right to play in that game over South Carolina by playing better over the entire course of the season. So, on the merits of losing that game, should they have dropped below South Carolina? I don’t think so and these rankings properly reflect that intent.
Clearly, though, it doesn’t properly address ALL situations. I’m bummed over Houston’s ranking, but as has been said many times… no system is perfect. And I never claimed that mine was before this. Just please be aware that I’m conceding this issue and not hiding it (after all, I am a scientist and I don’t hide results).
As such, the new rankings are:
- LSU (13-0)
- Houston (12-1)
- Oklahoma State (11-1)
- Stanford (11-1)
- Boise State (11-1)
- Alabama (11-1)
- Oregon (11-2)
- Wisconsin (11-2)
- Southern Mississippi (11-2)
- Virginia Tech (11-2)
- Michigan (10-2)
- Southern California (10-2)
- Michigan State (10-3)
- Arkansas (10-2)
- Georgia (10-3)
- TCU (10-2)
- Arkansas State (10-2)
- South Carolina (10-2)
- Oklahoma (9-3)
- Clemson (10-3)
- Tulsa (8-4)
- Kansas State (10-2)
- BYU (9-3)
- Nebraska (9-3)
- Penn State (9-3)
- Northern Illinois (10-3)
- Ohio (9-4)
- Baylor (9-3)
- West Virginia (9-3)
- Cincinnati (9-3)
- Notre Dame (8-4)
- Florida International (8-4)
- Florida State (8-4)
- Temple (8-4)
- Rutgers (8-4)
- Toledo (8-4)
- Georgia Tech (8-4)
- Virginia (8-4)
- Texas (7-5)
- Missouri (7-5)
- Louisiana Tech (8-4)
- Western Michigan (7-5)
- Louisiana – Lafayette (8-4)
- SMU (7-5)
- North Carolina (7-5)
- Nevada (7-5)
- Iowa (7-5)
- San Diego State (8-4)
- California (7-5)
- Western Kentucky (7-5)
- Texas A&M (6-6)
- Auburn (7-5)
- Marshall (6-6)
- Louisville (7-5)
- Utah (7-5)
- UCLA (6-7)
- Purdue (6-6)
- Ohio State (6-6)
- Washington (7-5)
- Mississippi State (6-6)
- Wyoming (8-4)
- Wake Forest (6-6)
- Illinois (6-6)
- North Carolina State (7-5)
- Ball State (6-6)
- Utah State (7-5)
- East Carolina (5-7)
- Vanderbilt (6-6)
- Miami – FL (6-6)
- North Texas (5-7)
- Northwestern (6-6)
- Florida (6-6)
- Arizona State (6-6)
- UCF (5-7)
- Eastern Michigan (6-6)
- San Jose State (5-7)
- Air Force (7-5)
- Texas Tech (5-7)
- Tennessee (5-7)
- South Florida (5-7)
- Bowling Green (5-7)
- Pittsburgh (6-6)
- Kentucky (5-7)
- Iowa State (6-6)
- Connecticut (5-7)
- Rice (4-8)
- Louisiana – Monroe (4-8)
- Hawaii (6-7)
- UTEP (5-7)
- New Mexico State (4-9)
- Miami – OH (4-8)
- Navy (4-7)
- Arizona (4-8)
- Kent State (5-7)
- Colorado (3-10)
- Boston College (4-8)
- Syracuse (5-7)
- UAB (3-9)
- Washington State (4-8)
- Minnesota (3-9)
- Fresno State (4-9)
- Duke (3-9)
- Troy (3-9)
- Oregon State (3-9)
- Army (3-8)
- Buffalo (3-9)
- Central Michigan (3-9)
- Tulane (2-11)
- Maryland (2-10)
- Memphis (2-10)
- Middle Tennessee State (2-10)
- Colorado State (3-9)
- Mississippi (2-10)
- Idaho (2-10
- Kansas (2-10)
- UNLV (2-10)
- Florida Atlantic (1-11)
- New Mexico (1-11)
- Akron (1-11)
- Indiana (1-11)
