I got to thinking this morning about some of the nuances of team sports (in general) and college football (more specifically). One that occurred to me, partly from seeing the annual debate about teams’ relative strengths and weaknesses, is the difference between a team that loses four games by a total of 21 points (such as FSU), one that loses three games by a total of 59 points (such as Clemson) or 62 points (Nebraska) or 57 points (Penn State), and one that loses two games by a total of 48 points (Arkansas) or 39 points (Michigan State).
My analytical mind starting going to work to consider what team is better: the 0-12 team that was outscored by twelve points on the season (for you non-statisticians and logisticians, that means that they lost every game by exactly one point) or the 11-1 team that beat eleven teams by a total of eleven points and then was outscored by 40 in their lone loss (meaning that for the season, they were outscored by 29 points)? For sure, the 11-1 team looks a lot better, and the good teams are the ones that figure out how to win the close games. But, is it really as simple as looking at the record? Schedule hasn’t been mentioned yet, so it’s entirely reasonable that the 0-12 team had a far more difficult schedule. But, even assuming the two schedules were comparable, doesn’t it seem just as reasonable to conclude that the differences between these two teams’ performances isn’t nearly as stark as the records suggest?
Before I go any further, I should point out that I don’t mean to suggest that FSU should be ranked as high as or higher than the aforementioned teams. In the end, wins count more than anything (I’m a fairly strict adherent to this, as my computer rankings strongly support). Wins are always better than losses, so FSU should not get any special consideration above three-loss and (especially) two-loss teams. But, the added context of how they lost those games is a nuance that shouldn’t be ignored (though, it seems that it almost always is).
Over the last few days, I have heard and read from many FSU fans who are almost universally pissed off about the last two weeks (the loss to Virginia and the win at Florida), ranging from wanting E.J. Manuel demoted to Jimbo Fisher fired. I don’t often resort to profanity, but to both of those suggestions and almost all in between, I just have to ask, “ARE YOU ALL FUCKING CRAZY???“
So, this write-up is my humble attempt to put some things in perspective. In all cases, I am attempting to provide hard, irrefutable, verifiable evidence and data to back up my conclusions. For sure, your conclusions may differ (and be completely legitimate), but if I do this correctly, my supporting data will be unquestionable. In the end, though, the prevailing message that I am attempting to communicate is that the hardliners among you (and you know who you are) need to step back, take a deep breath, and relax just a little bit. Yes, this season did not go as most of us expected, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as many of you seem to believe. Remember — fourteen points (six against Clemson, six against Wake Forest, and two against Virginia) were the difference between our record and 11-1 (and going to the ACC Championship Game). Eleven more points on top of that and we’re 12-0, looking at possibly facing LSU in the national championship game. That’s a pretty short distance between nationally elite and sucking, as I have heard some FSU fans claim the Seminoles now do. So short a distance, in fact, that I believe you have to be insanely myopic to not be able to see the elite category from where we currently stand.
So, how did we get here? Well, let’s take a look at several key points in that journey and maybe then things will make more sense:
- Started the season ranked #5 – Based on the success of last season, the incoming recruiting class (which has played a lot and performed reasonably well), the polls both believed that FSU was ready to return to elite status. Manuel had starting experience at quarterback and had been pretty successful in that role as both a freshman and sophomore. We had a deep stable of talented running backs. We had experience at wide receiver. Defense looked like a true strength coming into a season for the first time in at least three years. The only real question mark was the offensive line. But, Rick Trickett is renowned for his work as Offensive Line Coach, so few of us were extraordinarily worried about this (more on the offensive line farther down). Ultimately, it turns out, expectations can be what undo a team. The expectations were extraordinarily high and anything less than 11-1 to many fans would be not just disheartening, but downright unacceptable.
- Lost to Oklahoma – This loss was largely forgivable. Oklahoma was legitimately one of the top teams in the country at the time (and had they not lost their top running back and top receiver, I believe they might STILL be unbeaten). And, we played them close, which was really the most resonating hope among Seminole fans at the time. But, considering the officials blew a call early in the second quarter that would have given us first and goal at the 1-foot line, we lost one of our most explosive receivers (on the same play, incidentally), and we lost our starting QB midway through the third, the ten-point loss was actually encouraging. The team didn’t give up. They played hard the entire game and gave us ample reason to believe they were at least ready to compete with the nationally elite on a week-by-week basis. All we needed was to regroup and not lose to Clemson on the road…
- Then to Clemson – Unfortunately, Manuel would not be ready to play the following week against Clemson and, while playing admirably, Clint Trickett made enough key mistakes (particularly at the end) and the defense was depleted to such a degree from the previous week’s effort that we could not overcome an early double-digit deficit (officiating played a role, as well — more on that later). However, the rest of the schedule was navigable enough that many of us felt confident we would go into Gainesville with a 9-2 record. We just needed to get back on track in two weeks in Winston-Salem…
- Then to Wake Forest – This is where the wheels seemed to fall off. Up was down. Left was right. Good was evil. Whatever it was, the world just wasn’t making sense. After a dominant defensive effort in the first half (somewhat derailed by three turnovers by Clint Trickett), the defense seemed to collapse in the second half (aided in part by two Manuel interceptions). Despite that, the effort remained and we lost on the road by only five points. Since that time, FSU has gone 6-1, which is a perfectly fine record over such a span (in fact, over the last seven weeks, only twelve other teams in the country have gone 6-1 or better). But, what are some of the reasons why we started 2-3 before that 6-1 stretch (and perhaps more importantly, why are some people upset at how we went 6-1)?
- Offensive line – Going into the season, the offensive line was already expected to be a relative weakness. That’s not to say that it was expected to be weak. It’s more accurate to say that the rest of the team was expected to be so good that the inexperienced offensive line would pale in comparison. It turned out that the line was the weakness of the team, by light years. Early on, we struggled to establish the run against Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern. We hardly moved the ball on the ground at all against Oklahoma, though that seemed more reasonable. Things got worse, though, as we were plagued throughout the entire season with injuries to the line. It’s my understanding that four opening weekend starters and eight off of the two deep missed significant playing time during key stretches of the season. Heck — at the end of the season, we were playing a 17-year old true freshman. Honestly, is it any wonder that we couldn’t move the ball effectively towards the end of the season? In my mind, it’s amazing that Manuel was able to avoid major injury over the final month of the season, with all the running he had to do and the shots that he ended up taking anyways. I’ve watched (and participated in) a LOT of football in my life and I’ve come to only one absolutely undeniable truth about the game, regardless of players, system, or philosophy. The skill players on both sides of the ball are only as good as the interior of the lines. A dominant defensive line can make average linebackers and defensive backs look like All-Americas because those players can then focus solely on their jobs. They’ll stay in proper position more often. They’ll intercept more passes. They’ll stop more runs at the line of scrimmage. On offense, it works the same way. A dominant offensive line will open up holes for runners. They’ll give the quarterback time to read the defense, locate open receivers, and throw the ball smoothly and accurately. They’ll allow receivers enough time to get open and stretch the field. Conversely, a bad line will make the most elite of skill players look average, at best, but more likely just plain bad. That’s what we had — an injured offensive line that often made the other players around them look bad.
- Play calling – I’ve heard over the last few weeks about how bad Jimbo Fisher’s play calling has been over the last month. Here’s something that I find interesting, though. He’s much like his former employers in that he’s fairly steady with his play calling from game to game, month to month. He likes to establish the run to set up the pass. He likes balance, not just in run/pass ratio, but also in field and player distribution. He likes to try to take the defense by surprise from time to time, though he’s not a huge disciple of the trick play. I don’t notice much variation. And when the team is scoring and moving the ball, he is highly praised. When the team stumbles a bit, the play calling is criticized. Given that he doesn’t change much, I think this is a complaint of the arm-chair-variety fan. You’re either one of them or you know at least one of them — the kind of fan who is certain that he could call a better game than a particular coach, but has never lifted a finger to coach at any level at any point in his life. I do make a small exception to this observation for the Florida game — for more on that, see below.
- Injury to E.J. Manuel – For the season, we lost E.J. Manuel for parts of three games (and there are lingering questions regarding his health even since his return). I’m going to list some teams that have better records than FSU (along with their starting quarterbacks): LSU (Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson), Alabama (A.J. McCarron), Oklahoma State (Brandon Weeden), Stanford (Andrew Luck), Virginia Tech (Logan Thomas), Houston (Case Keenum), Boise State (Kellen Moore), Arkansas (Tyler Wilson), Oklahoma (Landry Jones), Georgia (Aaron Murray), Wisconsin (Russell Wilson), and Baylor (Robert Griffin, III). Of all of those, I believe that only one team could withstand losing their starting quarterback for as long as we lost Manuel and escape without losing fewer than three more games than they already have (that one team being LSU). FSU lost all three of the games in which we lost Manuel. But, more telling to me is that FSU went 8-1 in the games in which we had Manuel for the entire game, by an average margin of 23.4 points. This is not making excuses — I’m not trying to indicate that FSU deserves any special treatment because they were a more dominant team with their starting QB (who isn’t?). This is simply putting wins and losses into greater context.
- Officiating – Normally, I can’t stand the fans who blame losses on officials. I’ve met plenty of college football fans who are genuinely convinced that their team has not lost a game in the last 20 years on their own merit, but because the officials gave the game to the opponent. But, at the same time, I have never witnessed such consistent and egregious officiating gaffes by officials as I did almost all season long against FSU. With the exception of the Clemson game, I don’t know that this collection of ghastly calls would have changed the win-or-loss result. But, I do believe that the perception of this team would be different right now. Consider: (1) Against Oklahoma, Manuel completes a pass to Kenny Shaw, who is knocked unconscious just before crossing the goal line by a pair of helmet-to-helmet hits. He drops the ball and it is recovered in the end zone. Officials correctly rule that the hits constitute a personal foul penalty, but incorrectly rule that the ball was not caught. No review takes place and FSU retains possession at the Oklahoma 12 yard line instead of the 1-foot line. FSU fails to score on the drive. (2) Against Clemson, officials’ errors cost FSU 21 points according to a leaked report by the ACC in a game that FSU lost by five points. (3) Against Wake Forest, a video goes viral showing an official actively moving the ball in Wake Forest’s favor DURING a first-down measurement. Over the course of the 10-second measurement, the ball is adjusted approximately four inches. It’s unlikely that this action changed the outcome of the game, but it cast significant doubt (nationally) on the credibility of the ACC officiating crews. (4) Against Miami, officiating miscalls create a 21-point swing in Miami’s favor. On the first play from scrimmage, Miami clearly fumbled a completed pass, with FSU scooping up the loose ball and running in for a touchdown. Despite obvious video evidence (showing that Miami’s Allen Hurns took approximately 3-1/2 steps with possession of the football before fumbling), officials eventually ruled the play an incomplete pass. Later, on the opening kickoff of the second half, Karlos Williams returned the kick untouched for a touchdown. The score was overturned by an illegal block call against Greg Reid, though replays showed that Reid stayed out of the play and did not make contact with any Miami player. Lastly, on Miami’s final drive, a game-clinching interception by FSU was nullified by a HIGHLY questionable late-hit call against Timmy Jernigan (and the drive was subsequently extended when Nigel Bradham was flagged (and ejected) for a completely legal hit). FSU won 23-19, but I’m wondering if any FSU fans would have been complaining about play calling if the game had properly ended 37-12. (5) Against Virginia, a phantom holding call against Bobby Hart erased a 50-yard gain on FSU’s first drive that would have put them deep in Virginia territory. Instead they were backed up and the drive fizzled. On the second drive, at the end of a 53-yard gain on an end-around, Rashad Greene was tackled two yards out of bounds AND by the collar. The official that was literally five feet away from the tackle made no call. The properly-called penalty would have put FSU just outside of the Virginia 5-yard line. Lastly, all game long, both Bjorn Werner and Brandon Jenkins were tackled on their way to the quarterback, with the umpire calling holding exactly one time. And (6), against Florida, a 43-yard touchdown run by Manuel was brought back because of a phantom holding call against Zebrie Sanders. Would a 28-7 win that was otherwise unchanged quiet the complaints a little bit? I think it would have.
- Florida game – Yes, the Florida game was ugly offensively. A big part of that, I concede, was the play calling in this instance. This is the one time that I have seen Fisher significantly deviate from his normal game plan. And I believe it was because they were on the road against FSU’s biggest (and most annoying) rival. I believe that Fisher knew that the defense and special teams could dominate, so the plan was to just play conservative, limit potential mistakes that might energize the nearly 91,000 fans, and get points when the opportunities presented themselves. We had a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter and Fisher probably knew that was already enough to win. Was it pretty? On the surface, no. But, in a way, I actually think it was quite beautiful. When was the last time FSU won a game when the offense didn’t do much? Over the last ten years, we’ve had plenty of games in which the defense did enough to win the game right up until the final five minutes or so. Then, things would fall apart (see Virginia game). Great teams find a way to win when the offense is stinking up the joint. We did that this past weekend and I LOVED it!!
At this point, the question becomes, where does the team go from here?
One thing that I think many FSU fans need to get out of their heads is that a good (or even great) head coach wins a national championship in three seasons or less. Yes, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Les Miles, Nick Saban, and Gene Chizik all won national championships in three seasons or less in their last (or current) stops. But, there are a few points that should be noted:
- Not winning a national championship that quickly does not preclude a coach from greatness. How many years did it take Bobby Bowden, Tom Osbourne, and Joe Paterno to win their first national championships? What about Mack Brown? Frank Beamer? Mark Richt (who has averaged 9.6 wins over eleven seasons at a program that averaged only 8 wins per year under legendary coach Vince Dooley)? I’m not saying that we should be happy indefinitely for not contending for national championships (we shouldn’t). But, Jimbo Fisher will likely finish his second season averaging 9.5 wins for a team that averaged only 7.8 wins over the previous six seasons (pre-vacating of wins). Maybe he deserves just a little bit of slack?
- Every single one of those coaches except for Stoops had head coaching experience elsewhere. Tressel and Saban had already won national championships elsewhere. Meyer already had an unbeaten season that included a BCS-bowl win. Miles had already resuscitated a moribund Oklahoma State program before going to Baton Rouge. Jimbo Fisher is going to make a mistake from time to time. Is it frustrating? Sure. But, he’s also learned from those mistakes and will continue to do so. If you’re not willing to allow him some room to grow, then you’re either younger than thirteen years old or you stupidly believe that you’ve never made a mistake on the job.
- Even Stoops’ success has been largely beholden to his assistants. When he first went to Oklahoma, luck would bless him with the opportunity to build the dream coaching team that included both of his brothers, Mike Leach, and Mark Mangino among others. Most especially, though, since former defensive coordinator Mike Stoops left to coach at Arizona, the defense has hiccuped at least once a year, preventing them from winning the national championship.
Personally, I have every bit of confidence that as early as next season (Fisher’s third, by the way), FSU will be capable of contending for the national championship, assuming ridiculously poor luck doesn’t hinder them again (the offensive line can’t possibly be that decimated by injuries two years in a row, can it?). Make no mistake, the offensive line will be better next year. My guess — something akin to the 2009 offensive line. Manuel will return more seasoned and more comfortable with his returning group of receivers (which, by the way, will also be bolstered by the return of 2010′s second-leading receiver Willie Haulstead). Jermaine Thomas will be gone and we don’t yet know the fate of Chris Thompson, but we will have a bevy of talented running backs, likely led by Devonta Freeman and James Wilder, Jr. Nick O’Leary is likely going to be a FAR more utilized weapon than he was this year, after he showed tremendous promise. And the defense will likely be at least as good as it was this year.
Coach Fisher is building this team the right way — with excellent recruiting of character guys, focusing strongly on the lines and then working his way to the skill players. We are well on our way to a third straight consensus top-three recruiting class and the 2013 class has already got a few oral commits. We have incoming depth on that offensive line, enough so that before too long, we will no longer be rebuilding lines, but restocking them a la 1990′s.
Have faith, fans!! For sure, this season had its forgettable moments that proved unbelievably frustrating for all of us. But, learning typically only comes from mistakes. And a few stumbles here and there builds character and resilience. The team is not that far off from where we want them to be. Just 25 points!!
